Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Some Early Results

Remember to treat everything preliminary with a large pinch of salt. And never think that you shouldn't go out to vote because it's a) in the bag or b) a certain loss. With these warnings:

Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.

Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.
Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.
Michigan- Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.

MyDD.com also has some preliminary results by state. These are exit polls and taken very early in the day. Traditionally, Republican votes are higher in the morning, but this may not be true this year. In either case, read with great care.

Another source for the exit polls is Salon:

According to the first exit polls by the National Election Pool, a consortium of six major media organizations, Kerry's not doing half bad.
The results posted below warrant at least a few grains of salt, but as of 2pm Eastern, exit polls show Kerry winning in Florida (51-48), Pennsylvania (60-40), Ohio (52-48), Michigan (51-47), New Mexico (50-48), Minnesota (58-40), Wisconsin (52-43), and New Hampshire (57-41).
The president leads in Arizona (55-45), Colorado (51-48), and Louisiana (57-42). Iowa is a tie (49-49).